Covid-19 briefing

Download GlobalData’s Covid-19 Executive Briefing report

- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 14 April

The global economy is forecasted to return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2021 or early 2022.

India is projected 12.5% growth in 2021 ahead of China which is forecasted to grow by 8.6%, according to the IMF.

The IMF has raised its world economic growth forecast for 2021 to 6% from its earlier projection of 5.5% in January 2021.

6.7%

According to the OECD, the unemployment rate in OECD nations stood at 6.7% in Feb 2021, marginally down from 6.8% in Jan 2021.

Impact of Covid-19 on equity indices

- SECTOR IMPACT: PHARMA -

Latest update: 06 April

industry development

40x

CVS reported a 40x increase in the use of telemedicine and virtual services via its MinuteClinic division compared to pre-Covid-19.

32%

Clinical trial activity has slowly started to turn around from disruption due to Covid-19 with 32% of resumed trials in Phase II.

drug development

The Covid-19 pandemic has created a massive global effort centred around finding effective therapeutics and vaccines.

While the development and commercialisation of a safe vaccine typically take at least several years to materialize, Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 has beaten that timeline by a considerable margin with the UK becoming the first market to approve the jab.

Vaccine candidates using classic technology will likely take at least 12-18 months to develop; however, timelines for DNA, mRNA or adenoviral vaccines are indeed shorter as multiple vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and AstraZeneca now have demonstrated efficacy in the prevention of Covid-19.

Nevertheless, with pharmaceutical companies shifting their strategies to focus on the development of Covid-19-related assets, the non-Covid-19 drug development programs have been brought to a temporary backseat.

Key pharma market developments

Clinical trials

Although suspended trials have begun to recruit participants and delays in trial initiation have levelled off, the impact on trials resulting in slow recruitment continues.

Oncology trials continue to suffer the most disruption followed by trials for CNS diseases due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Vaccine rollout

At its present rate of vaccination, the US will be able to administer two doses of any vaccine to 85% of adults within 95 days.

Herd immunity could potentially be achieved sooner, depending on the rollout of Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose vaccine.

Importantly, a significant percentage of adults in the US remain hesitant to receive a Covid-19 vaccine, with some surveys indicating that up to 30% of US adults would “probably” or “never” receive a Covid-19 vaccine.

This trend may dampen the benefit of the vaccine rollout and may make the herd immunity target of 70% difficult to achieve

02/23/2024 23:26:25