Covid-19 Executive Briefing

Understanding the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the implications for the healthcare sector

- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 11 August

Many economists have cut their GDP forecasts. The 2020 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently negative and many predict a recession.

The World Economic Forum estimates advanced economies will shrink by 7% and emerging and developing economies will contract by 2.5% in 2020.

-4%

Consensus forecast for world GDP growth in 2020 is currently -4%.

9.5%

Goldman Sachs expects UK unemployment to rise to 9.5% by December 2020.

Impact of Covid-19 on GDP growth

- SECTOR IMPACT: PHARMA -

Latest update: 11 August

Clinical trial market impact

557

The number of impacted clinical trials that are now back on track as trial activity begins to resume.

62,513,174

At least 62,513,174 tests have been performed in the US but total tests performed per million still lag behind countries such as the UK, Russia, Spain and Singapore.

Patient Access to Services

Telemedicine is becoming a critical tool for patient management as patient office visits decline. Hospitals are also seeing a significant drop in visits for illnesses such as heart attacks, severe abdominal pain and strokes, likely due to patient fears of contracting Covid-19.

Key pharma market developments

Emerging technologies

Many countries are using artificial intelligence (AI) to curb the spread of Covid-19 by providing information on early warnings and alerts, tracking and prediction, treatments, diagnosis and social control.

AI is also being used in drug development for Covid-19 to identify potential treatments. BenevolentAI, a UK-based AI company, used its proprietary AI drug discovery and development platform to identify Eli Lilly's baricitinib as a potential treatment for Covid-19.

Clinical trials

The disruption of clinical trial activity due to Covid-19 has been devastating to the pharmaceutical industry. While the number of disrupted trials has been leveling off, industry stakeholders are desperate to see a return to normal. However, a majority of surveyed respondents believe that the impact will last for at least another six months.

Vaccine development

A Covid-19 vaccine from the Gamaleya Research Institute in Moscow has been approved in Russia. Clinical data of the adenovirus vector-based vaccine is not yet available, as the vaccine entered Phase III clinical trials only last week.

According to Russian Government officials, up to 500 million doses of the vaccine will be produced annually with the support of international partners. It is likely that the data used to support approval in Russia will not be sufficient for approval in developed markets.

02/23/2024 20:48:14