Covid-19 Executive Briefing

Understanding the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the implications for the healthcare sector

- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 09 September

Many economists have cut their GDP forecasts. The 2020 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently negative and many predict a recession.

The World Economic Forum estimates advanced economies will shrink by 7% and emerging and developing economies will contract by 2.5% in 2020.

-3.9%

Consensus forecast for world GDP growth in 2020 is currently -3.9%.

7.5%

The Bank of England expects UK unemployment to peak at 7.5 %.

Impact of Covid-19 on GDP growth

- SECTOR IMPACT: PHARMA -

Latest update: 15 September

supply chain concerns

92%

Across all company types and regions, 92% of companies said Covid-19 poses a risk to their imports/exports.

38%

The unproven technology of mRNA vaccines was seen to be the most promising by respondents, with 38% reporting this may offer the best hope of addressing the outbreak.

Patient Access to Services

Telemedicine is becoming a critical tool for patient management as patient office visits decline. Hospitals are also seeing a significant drop in visits for illnesses such as heart attacks, severe abdominal pain and strokes, likely due to patient fears of contracting Covid-19.

Key pharma market developments

Emerging technologies

Many countries are using artificial intelligence (AI) to curb the spread of Covid-19 by providing information on early warnings and alerts, tracking and prediction, treatments, diagnosis and social control.

AI is also being used in drug development for Covid-19 to identify potential treatments. BenevolentAI, a UK-based AI company, used its proprietary AI drug discovery and development platform to identify Eli Lilly's baricitinib as a potential treatment for Covid-19.

Clinical trials

The disruption of clinical trial activity due to Covid-19 has been devastating to the pharmaceutical industry. While the number of disrupted trials has been levelling off, industry stakeholders are desperate to see a return to normal.

However, a majority of surveyed respondents believe that the impact will last for at least another six months.

Vaccine development

The number of clinical trials in the US has surpassed the number of trials in China. Over the past two months, clinical trials in India have increased dramatically and India is now in the fourth place for Covid-19 trials.

Vaccine candidates using classic technology will likely take at least 12-18 months to develop but development timelines for DNA or mRNA vaccines could be shorter.

02/24/2024 02:40:10