- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 21 October 

Many economists have cut their GDP forecasts. The 2020 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently negative and many predict a recession.

World Trade Organization forecasts the volume of world merchandise trade to shrink by 9.2% in 2020 followed by an estimated rise of 7.2% in 2021.

-4.4%

IMF has revised its 2020 global GDP forecast to -4.4% from an estimate of -4.9% made in June.

88-115 million

Covid-19 to push 88-115 million people into extreme poverty in 2020, according to the World Bank.

Impact of Covid-19 on equity indices

- SECTOR IMPACT: PHARMA -

Latest update: 10 November 

Vaccine development

38%

The unproven technology of mRNA vaccines was seen to be the most promising by GlobalData survey respondents, with 38% reporting this may offer the best hope of addressing the outbreak. This is likely due to the rapid nature which saw mRNA vaccines enter the clinic.

$328m

Clover Biopharmaceuticals will receive up to $328m from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation for the late-stage development of its Covid-19 vaccine candidate.

clinical trial results 

Pfizer and BioNTech announced positive results from the interim analysis of their Covid-19 vaccine candidate.


The vaccine showed greater than 90% efficacy in the first 94 confirmed Covid-19 cases that occurred in trial participants without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, greatly exceeding the efficacy bar of 50% set by the US Food and Drug Administration.


The announcement comes less than one year since SARS-CoV-2 was identified and seven months after the companies started their first Phase I study. More than 43,000 participants from diverse backgrounds were enrolled in the Phase III trial.


However, the 90% efficacy reported in the interim analysis can still decrease in the final analysis, which will include 164 cases of confirmed Covid-19.

Key pharma market developments

Telemedicine 

Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the use of telemedicine by specialists was relatively low; however, 73% of specialists surveyed indicated that their use of telemedicine had increased as a result of the pandemic. Almost 75% of specialists indicated that they would use the technology in the future.


Clinical trials

The first choice for contract research organisations (CROs) and other contract service providers is to move to decentralised/virtual trials (DCTs). Many CROs already offer this model and there would be fewer necessary adaptations compared to other company roles. 


The APAC region is evenly split in addressing disruptions by remote patient monitoring, planning to move to DCTs, remote site initiation and mandating research staff to work remotely. Europe is the top region that has ceased opening any new clinical trial, with 9% of respondents indicating that their companies are not initiating any new trials.


Drug development 

The drug development landscape for Covid-19 is unique in that it has been negatively impacted by studies which are of low quality being used to justify use of drugs which rigorous studies do not support. These conflicts of data presentation have created conjecture about the reliability of data for Covid-19 therapeutics.

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