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- ECONOMIC IMPACT -
Latest update: 14 October
Many economists have cut their GDP forecasts. The 2020 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently negative and many predict a recession.
World Trade Organization forecasts the volume of world merchandise trade to shrink by 9.2% in 2020 followed by an estimated rise of 7.2% in 2021.
IMF has revised its 2020 global GDP forecast to -4.4% from an estimate of -4.9% made in June.
The global economy is estimated to contract by 4.2% in 2020 and bounce back by 5.3% in 2021.
Impact of Covid-19 on equity indices
- SECTOR IMPACT: PHARMA -
Latest update: 13 October
Clinical trial market impact
Trial disruption is leveling off and disrupted trials saw a small dip, with 1,032 trials still disrupted and 579 pharma/biotech companies and contract research organisations associated with disrupted clinical trials.
There are currently 3,414 clinical trials underway for Covid-19, including 172 multinational trials and 2,818 single-country trials.
To date, the pandemic has had a minimal impact on the FDA’s ability to meet committed Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) dates for US drug approvals.
While multiple advisory committee meetings were postponed or cancelled during Q1 and Q2, the agency nonetheless managed to issue approvals and complete response letters for all PDUFAs during that timeframe.
Beginning in mid-June, the FDA moved upcoming advisory committee meetings to an online/teleconference format instead of postponing or cancelling them.
While this shift to a virtual meeting format should prevent delays in regulatory approvals due to the inability to meet in person, the agency’s statement in May about expected delays was a proactive warning to the industry, and potentially a harbinger of future delays.
Key pharma market developments