Covid-19 briefing

Download GlobalData’s Covid-19 Executive Briefing report

- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 20 January

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), unemployment rates in OECD nations declined marginally to 6.9% in November 2020 from 7.1% in October 2020.

The Chinese economy expanded by 6.5% (YoY) in Q4 2020, taking the full year growth to 2.3% in 2020, the slowest rate in more than four decades, according to National Bureau of Statistics.

World Bank forecasts global economic growth at 4% in 2021 as vaccine rollout becomes widespread.

-3.7%

Consensus forecast for world GDP growth in 2020 is now -3.7%.

Impact of Covid-19 on equity indices

- SECTOR IMPACT: PHARMA -

Latest update: 02 February

Vaccine development

$100bn

Prophylactic vaccines are predicted to generate total sales of over $100bn from 2020 to 2026.

2026

Peak sales for many Covid-19 therapeutic drugs is forecast to occur in 2026, which could be due to several of these drugs receiving approvals for other indications.

Pharmaceutical Value Chain impact

The Covid-19 pandemic has created a massive global effort centered around finding effective therapeutics and vaccines.

While development and commercialisation of a safe vaccine typically takes at least several years to materialise, Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 has beaten that timeline by a considerable margin with the UK becoming the first market to approve the jab.

Nevertheless, with pharmaceutical companies shifting their strategies to focus on the development of Covid-19-related assets, the non-Covid-19 drug development programs have been brought to a temporary backseat.

Developers with Covid-19 therapies and vaccines will benefit in the short-term, as intense investor interest will drive up stock prices and provide these companies with cash and resources to further pipeline development.

Key pharma market developments

Telemedicine

Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the use of telemedicine by specialists was relatively low; however, 73% of specialists surveyed indicated that their use of telemedicine had increased as a result of the pandemic. Almost 75% of specialists indicated that they would use the technology in the future.

Clinical trials

Clinical trial disruptions have begun to dip, however trials impacted by slow enrolment specifically are still increasing. At least 1,011 trials are disrupted and 599 pharma/biotech companies and CROs are associated with these trials. So far, 9411 affected trials are back on track.

Drug development

Vaccine candidates using classic technology will likely take at least 12-18 months to develop; however, timelines for DNA, mRNA or adenoviral vaccines are indeed shorter as multiple vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and AstraZeneca now have demonstrated efficacy in prevention of Covid-19.

Supply chain challenges

Companies are struggling to keep up with the demand for Covid-19 vaccines that have received Emergency Approval. In addition, distribution of advanced technology medical products has become an issue due to cold chain requirements.

02/23/2024 23:26:16