Covid-19 Executive Briefing

Understanding the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the implications for the healthcare sector

- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 18 May

Many economists have cut their GDP forecasts. The 2020 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently negative and many predict a recession.

The European Commission predicts the EU economy will contract by 7.5% in 2020 but expects a recovery in 2021 despite exceptional uncertainty.

-4.8%

HSBC revised its global economic growth forecast for 2020 to -4.8% in May from -3.3% in April.

$8.5tn

Global economic output will fall by $8.5 trillion over next two years, according to the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects report

Impact of Covid-19 on asset prices

- SECTOR IMPACT: MEDICAL -

Latest update: 18 May

Clinical trial market impact

491

The number of Pharma/Biotech companies and CROs associated with disrupted clinical trials.

1,667

The pharmaceutical industry is racing to develop both preventive and therapeutic interventions. There are currently 1667 clinical trials for Covid-19.

Patient Access to Services

Telemedicine is becoming a critical tool for patient management as patient office visits decline. Hospitals are also seeing a significant drop in visits for illnesses such as heart attacks, severe abdominal pain and strokes, likely due to patient fears of contracting Covid-19.

Key mediCal market developments

Restarting clinical trials

Disrupted clinical trials have slowly started to resume activity. The FDA is collaborating with the CDC to develop a process to restart regular on-site inspections to help ensure that this is done as safely as possible. This will follow the criteria outlined in the ‘Guidelines for Opening up America Again’ recently unveiled by President Trump, after these guidelines saw a temporary disruption for one week.

Supply chains

At the height of the outbreak, companies with facilities in China closed manufacturing plants. However, operations are beginning to resume in areas such as Wuhan, and consequently supply chains are being restored.

Finance and Business Development & Licensing

The pharma industry saw a 54% drop in value and 90% decline in the volume of completed venture capital (VC deals) in February 2020 compared to February 2019. However, despite this dip, VC deals reportedly increased in March 2020.

Marketing and Commercial Activities

The cancellation of clinical events and restricted physician detailing have limited face time with physicians. This has coincided with increase sales of antidepressants, anti-anxiety and anti-insomnia drugs, which have risen by approximately 20% post-Covid-19. Moreover, Q1 2020 sales of Roche’s immunosuppressive drug Actemra (tocilizumab) jumped 30% amid testing in severe Covid-19 patients.

02/24/2024 02:30:23