Covid-19 Executive Briefing

Understanding the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the implications for the healthcare sector

- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 16 June

Many economists have cut their GDP forecasts. The 2020 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently negative and many predict a recession.

Global foreign direct investment flows are forecast to fall by up to 40% in 2020, from a value of $1.54tn in 2019, according to UNCTAD.

-4.8%

HSBC revised its global economic growth forecast for 2020 to -4.8% in May from -3.3% in April.

$8.5tn

Global economic output will fall by $8.5tn over the next two years, according to the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects report

Impact of Covid-19 on asset prices

- SECTOR IMPACT: PHARMA -

Latest update: 16 June

Clinical trial market impact

583

The number of pharma/biotech companies and CROs associated with disrupted clinical trials.

12-18

Vaccine candidates using classic technology will likely take at least 12-18 months to develop but DNA or mRNA vaccines could be shorter.

Patient Access to Services

Telemedicine is becoming a critical tool for patient management as patient office visits decline. Hospitals are also seeing a significant drop in visits for illnesses such as heart attacks, severe abdominal pain and strokes, likely due to patient fears of contracting Covid-19.

Key pharma market developments

Drug development

AI is being used in drug development for Covid-19 to identify potential treatments. BenevolentAI, a UK-based artificial intelligence company, used its proprietary AI drug discovery and development platform to identify Eli Lilly's baricitinib as a potential treatment for Covid-19.

Vaccine logistics

With more than 120 Covid-19 vaccine candidates in development and ten in clinical studies, the logistics of producing hundreds of millions to billions of doses of a vaccine is daunting. Not only is raw material for the vaccine needed, but manufacturing sites, including production and testing equipment, have to be scaled up accordingly.

Moderna’s CEO, Stéphane Bancel, and Merck’s vaccine president, John Markels, said during the BIO conference that they are worried about both the supply chain and hiring enough qualified people to help in the effort to scale up the production of so many vaccine doses.

Regulatory activities

On June 15, the FDA withdrew an emergency approval for use of the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine as a Covid-19 treatment, citing the lack of benefit relative to potential risks for the drug and its use alone or as part of combinations. It is likely that trials will continue to evaluate this agent, as there is significant political pressure to continue testing it; however, the emerging body of evidence continues to support a lack of efficacy, and in some cases, serious side effects.

02/23/2024 22:21:06