Covid-19 Executive Briefing

Understanding the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the implications for the healthcare sector

- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 16 June

Many economists have cut their GDP forecasts. The 2020 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently negative and many predict a recession.

Global foreign direct investment flows are forecast to fall by up to 40% in 2020, from a value of $1.54tn in 2019, according to UNCTAD.

-4.9%

IMF projects global growth to decline by 4.9% in 2020, down 1.9% from April.

5.3%

The global economy is estimated to contract by 4.2% in 2020 and bounce back by 5.3% in 2021

Impact of Covid-19 on GDP growth

- SECTOR IMPACT: PHARMA -

Latest update: 17 July

Clinical trial market impact

424

The number of impacted clinical trials that are now back on track as trial activity begins to resume.

41,004,275

At least 41,004,275 tests have been performed in the US but total tests performed per million still lag behind countries such as the UK, Russia, Spain and Singapore.

Patient Access to Services

Telemedicine is becoming a critical tool for patient management as patient office visits decline. Hospitals are also seeing a significant drop in visits for illnesses such as heart attacks, severe abdominal pain and strokes, likely due to patient fears of contracting Covid-19.

Key pharma market developments

Manufacturing delays

According to the Times of India, the Covid-19 crisis has reduced factory capacity to 30%–50% in Maharashtra, India, due to nationwide lockdown restrictions on worker travel and supply chains between warehouses, distributors, and drug sellers. Added to this, widespread fear among manufacturer and distributor employees has led to absences, creating overall supply chain delays.

Clinical trials

Gilead presented additional data from its Phase III SIMPLE trial for remdesivir in severe Covid-19 patients. In 312 patients from the SIMPLE study with a separate real-world retrospective cohort study with 818 patients with comparable baseline characteristics on standard care, remdesivir significantly improved clinical recovery at Day 14 (74.4% vs. 59%) and reduced the risk of mortality by 62% as compared to standard of care (7.6% vs. 12.5% at Day 14).

These data support earlier findings; however the expansion phase of the SIMPLE study with 6,000 participants is still ongoing. Additionally, Gilead has announced the start of clinical trials testing an inhaled version of its antiviral remdesivir.

Drug development

Many countries are using artificial intelligence (AI) to curb the spread of Covid-19 by providing information on early warnings and alerts, tracking and prediction, treatments, diagnosis and social control. AI is also being used in drug development for Covid-19 to identify potential treatments.

02/24/2024 05:40:56